Monday, 4 July 2016

EU Referendum 23 June 2016

Following the recent vote to Leave the European Union we have been sent a breakdown of the vote percentages in Leicester. Those of you who have been involved with the BNP for a number of years will notice that the areas where we did a lot of campaigning are the ones with the highest leave vote.


The following has been shared by the Leicester area organiser of Vote Leave, Roman Scuplak,  with everyone who assisted in the campaign to leave the EU in one way or another and should not be taken to show any direct connection between the BNP and the official Vote Leave Campaign.

"I have analysed the count information by ward from the count information provided by the Council and below give an estimate of the remain/leave split by ward for voters voting at polling stations.  It is only an estimate because the votes were not actually tallied at the count by ward as such, but by polling district.  But the polling districts counted by table were consecutive and any particular ward was tallied on one table only or on two at most.  Each table also included randomly received postal votes from around the City.



I have used the actual tallies and have excluded the postal votes which were randomly spread between counting tables and I have made certain assumptions.  Overall though they should be fairly close to the actual results.  That is because I know the actual results per table, the number of postal votes included in that table and the polling districts included in that table.  Since postal votes were randomly distributed amongst tables, one can safely assume that they split in the same fashion on each table between Remain and Leave.  One can also assume, because of the demographics of postal voters in Leicester that they were slightly more likely to vote Remain than the electorate as a whole.  Having done this there have to be some assumptions made about the relative Remain/Leave split as between polling districts that were mixed.  I believe that the assumptions which I have made are not far from the actual.  Though the information is given by ward, you have to appreciate that there were sometimes considerable variations within wards.  For instance, though Saffron ward achieved a 58.2% Leave vote, the result on the Saffron estate was considerable better than this.  Similarly with the 55.9% Leave vote achieved overall in Humberstone and Hamilton as compared with the Netherhall estate alone which was much better.  Conversely, the Remain vote in Castle overall was 71.7%, whereas it was much higher in the Clarendon Park area of Castle. 



That said, there were six unmixed counts (except for postal voters).  The Belgrave, Evington, Humberstone & Hamilton and Stoneygate wards had tables to themselves and a further table counted only Western ward votes (with one of the Western ward polling districts included elsewhere).  The figures for these six wards are therefore more certain than the others.


Therefore I stress that the figures below are estimates for the Remain/Leave split by ward for voters voting at polling stations (excluding the 18.7% of voters who voted by post).  Since the postal votes were entirely mixed, it is impossible to allocate these by ward.  The figures below are therefore slightly more “Leave” orientated than the votes cast by voters overall, because they exclude the postal voters."

WARD/CONSTITUENCY

REMAIN
LEAVE
Belgrave
52.0
48.0
Evington
52.0
48.0
Humberstone & Hamilton
44.1
55.9
North Evington
60.7
39.3
Rushey Mead
48.9
51.1
Thurncourt
36.0
64.0
Troon
44.1
55.9
LEICESTER EAST
48.9
51.1
Aylestone
43.0
57.0
Castle
71.7
28.3
Eyres Monsell
22.1
77.9
Knighton
64.4
35.6
Saffron
41.8
58.2
Spinney Hills
66.8
33.2
Stoneygate
68.3
31.7
Wycliffe
66.0
34.0
LEICESTER SOUTH
58.0
42.0
Abbey
41.6
58.4
Braunstone Park & Rowley Fields
34.5
65.5
Beaumont Leys
42.3
57.7
Fosse
47.8
52.2
Westcotes
60.6
39.4
Western
37.3
62.7
LEICESTER WEST
42.3
57.7

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